On January 26, up to 250,000 Ecuadorians marched in 
Guayaquil, the largest city in Ecuador. Their demands included an end to
 rampant corruption and crime, improved health and sanitation services, 
and the reinstatement of the Supreme Court, which was unceremoniously 
sacked on December 8 by a narrow majority of the Ecuadorian Congress.
The dismissal of the Supreme Court, a majority of whose presiding 
judges were affiliated to the opposition Social-Christian Party (PSC), 
was precipitated by Ecuadorian President Lucio Gutierrez accusing it of 
favouring a PSC-led impeachment attempt against him last November.
Gutierrez has been under mounting pressure over the last year, as his
 ruling alliance has been unravelling and he has been under pressure 
from allegations of his involvement with drug-money and misuse of public
 funds resurfacing. The action against the Supreme Court is widely 
viewed as an unconstitutional power grab.
A former army colonel, Gutierrez came to power in early 2003 riding a
 wave of anti-corruption sentiment. Self-styling himself an "Ecuadorian 
Chavez", he espoused left-nationalist rhetoric and gained support for 
his candidacy from the left: both the indigenous party Pachakutik (the 
political wing of the indigenous federation CONAIE) and the Movement for
 Popular Democracy (MPD), the front organisation for the Communist Party
 of Ecuador (Marxist-Leninist) (PCMLE), backed him over the neoliberal 
Alvaro Noboa, Ecuador's richest man.
Unlike Venezuela's President Hugo Chavez, however, Gutierrez soon 
revealed himself a puppet of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and 
Washington. Gutierrez immediately increased military ties with the US, 
embroiling Ecuador in "Plan Colombia", the US-inspired escalation of the
 Colombian government's 40-year war against the Marxist guerrillas of 
the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC).
In January last year, Ecuadoran and Colombian forces worked together 
to capture FARC leader Ricardo Palmera (aka Simon Trinidad) in Quito. 
Palmera has been subsequently extradited to the US and charged with 
kidnapping and drug trafficking. This, along with the December 
kidnapping in Caracas of another FARC leader (without the approval of 
the Venezuelan government), has raised fears that Colombia and the US 
intend to pursue their war on the FARC throughout Latin America.
Within 10 days of his election, Gutierrez had already visited the US 
and pledged his support for the war on Iraq, and had deepened Ecuador's 
indebtedness to the IMF by taking out a further US$205 million loan. 
Gutierrez's privatisation of basic services has also sent costs 
skyrocketing, and left 80% of the population in poverty. His government 
is currently negotiating a free trade agreement with the US. Responding 
to this right-wing shift, the MPD soon left the ruling alliance and 
began calling for his overthrow.
Pachakutik followed when Gutierrez courted the right-wing PSC for 
congressional support as his own Patriotic Society Party (PSP) rapidly 
dissolved. His popularity has been plummeting ever since, amid 
allegations of corruption, the intimidation of opposition figures, and 
the violent suppression of media critical of the government, all of 
which have increased dramatically.
On January 26, Leon Roldos, a former vice president, was hospitalised
 after being beaten unconscious at Quito's Central University. Last 
month, Roldos started a campaign to collect the 1.2 million signatures 
needed to force a recall vote on Gutierrez, whose term otherwise runs 
until January 2007.
Roldos is not the only opponent of Gutierrez to have been terrorised.
 Lenin Cali Najera, national youth leader of Pachakutik, was gunned down
 in Guayaquil last July, and Leonidas Iza, president of CONAIE, was 
attacked upon returning from a conference in Cuba. Also, throughout the 
last year, package bombs have been set off in radio and television 
stations across Ecuador. The latest, on February 4, was a bomb hurled 
into the Macas offices of Radio Canela, a station run by Wilson Cabrera,
 a leader of the Citizens' Participation Movement, which is highly 
critical of Gutierrez.
With no real political support, and rising discontent, Gutierrez has 
begun to rely heavily upon his strong base in the military, sparking 
fears that, as a graduate of Washington's notorious 
terrorist-training-camp School of the Americas, he might launch a 
military coup in order to maintain his grip on power. To entrench his 
control of the military, Gutierrez has purged more than 100 officers 
from the army.
During the January election of the Congress president, police stopped
 some members of opposition parties from entering the legislature, 
leading to accusations that Gutierrez is trying to institute a 
'constitutional dictatorship', modelled on that of Alberto Fujimori in 
Peru during the 1990s. Gutierrez seems to be attempting to develop 
support in the traditional right-wing parties, his former opponents. 
The
 fired Supreme Court judges were replaced with members of PRIAN, the 
party of Gutierrez' 2002 presidential rival Alvaro Noboa, and the 
Roldosista Party (PRE), of ex-president Abdala Bucaram, who was fired in
 1997 for "mental incapacity" and fled to Panama amidst allegations of 
corruption.
It is rumoured that Bucaram is planning a political comeback, and 
that the Supreme Court action is designed to facilitate this. These 
suspicions have been heightened by Gutierrez's connection with known 
drug traffickers and Bucaram associates Luis and Cesar Fernandez, and 
reinforced by a PRE-organised 10,000-strong counter-rally in support of 
Gutierrez in Guayaquil on the day of the main march.
Disunited left
The nature of the main rally in Guayaquil reflects the sorry state of
 the left in Ecuador. The rally was organised largely by the PSC, 
despite the support of the more progressive Pachakutik and the presence 
at the rally of more radical parts of society. Similarly, the 
centre-left Democratic Left (ID), which along with the PSC dominates the
 Congress, is trying to force early elections to get rid of Gutierrez.
By contrast, the MPD, arguably Ecuador's largest far-left party with 
around 5% of the vote at the last election, has re-entered the alliance 
with Gutierrez's government, and was responsible for introducing the 
bill to dismiss the Supreme Court into Congress.
The MPD argues that greater danger lies in a PSC "coup" than in 
Gutierrez's ongoing corrupt regime. While the left remains disunited, 
and has lost much credibility from its support for Gutierrez's election,
 the most effective opposition is coming from the right.
PSC mayor of Guayaquil Jaime Nebot, who led the January 26 march, 
made calls for increased autonomy for the city, which is Ecuador's main 
financial and banking centre. Playing on the rivalry between Guayaquil 
and Quito, Nebot accused Gutierrez of neglecting vital security and 
crime prevention services in the city and demanded the creation of a 
private security force. However, he argued down the angry calls from the
 crowd for Gutierrez's resignation and for full independence for 
Guayaquil. 
Nebot is the likely PSC candidate for next year's 
presidential elections, and it is not in his interest to encourage 
another mass uprising, such as those that overthrew the governments of 
Bucaram in February of 1997, and of President Jamil Mahuad in January of
 2000.
Such an event would inevitably strengthen the left, and may hinder 
Nebot's chances of election. The PSC has seized the initiative, gaining 
the support of the Catholic Church and preparing another protest on 
February 17, alongside Pachakutik and the civil society groups Civic 
Convergence and Citizen Participation.
Given that it is to the right of Gutierrez, the PSC will find it hard
 to gain support on its policies alone. It is a symptom of how weak 
traditional politics are in Ecuador that at the last election, both 
leading candidates, including the wealthy businessman Noboa, campaigned 
on anti-neoliberal platforms, tapping into the disillusionment of the 
Ecuadorian people. For the PSC, or any other party, to topple Gutierrez 
will require the support of the working people and indigenous movements,
 which currently remain divided, both by ideology and politics.
The best hope, then, for the Ecuadorian people is if the left and 
indigenous movements can unite and work together to create a real 
alternative to the neoliberal politics of the established parties, 
looking particularly to the example being built in Venezuela.
On January 18, Luis Macas, president of CONAIE, reasserted that 
organisation's rejection of the US-Ecuador free trade agreement, saying 
that the "US wants to turn this part of the continent on a certain kind 
of garbage dump, and we will not to allow it".
Macas was equally critical of Gutierrez: "His plans are designed by 
the International Monetary Fund and the local oligarchy". He also argued
 the need to form a popular-alternative government that represents the 
interest of the Ecuadorian people.
CONAIE has declared a "state of alert" regarding the US-Ecuador free 
trade agreement, Plan Colombia and the increasing concentration of power
 Gutierrez' hands, and has called for an escalation of opposition to the
 government.
First published in Green Left Weekly, February 16, 2005.
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